While major outbursts from the Leonid meteor shower are rare and typically only occur every 33 years, there’s always a chance for increased activity, even in off-years.
In 2024, an "off-year" for the Leonids, astronomers aren’t predicting a full-blown storm, but there’s still potential for heightened meteor activity, possibly including some bright, spectacular fireballs.
Here are a few factors to consider if an outburst is likely: Earth’s Path through Dust Trails: The Leonids originate from dust trails left by Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle.
While 2024 isn’t expected to be a peak year, minor trails can still intersect Earth’s orbit, creating sudden bursts of meteors.
Fireballs and Fragmented Meteors: Even in low-activity years, the Leonids are known for bright, slow-moving meteors called fireballs.
Off-year Leonids can still produce a surprising number of these intense "shooting stars."
Moon Phase: In 2024, the Leonid peak falls close to a first quarter moon, so moonlight may slightly interfere with visibility. Observers may still spot the brightest meteors, especially if they observe during the darkest hours after midnight.
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